When Mathematics Saves Lives: The Story of Unsung Heroes
How scientists are learning to predict the unpredictable
Arthur Rahman
EcoBangla Correspondent
September 14, 2025
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Rashida lives in a small fishing village on Bangladesh's coast. When she saw the dark cloud formation on the horizon in May 2020, her heart began racing. Not because she hadn't seen storms before – in her 45 years, she'd survived more than one cyclone. But this time, something was different. The radio announced that Amphan was approaching – a storm with wind speeds reaching 260 kilometers per hour. It was the strongest storm ever recorded in the Bay of Bengal. But most importantly, scientists could tell her exactly what the water level would be in her village, when the storm would hit the coast, and whether she needed to flee. This precision wasn't magic – it was a mathematical formula that might look simple but saved thousands of lives. Life and Death in Numbers The statistics in Bangladesh are brutal. Since 1584, tropical storms have claimed over a million lives. In November 1970, a single storm killed half a million people – the worst natural disaster in the country's recorded history. But here's the strange thing: in recent decades, storms have become stronger, yet the death toll has dropped dramatically. Despite its record-breaking force, 2020's Amphan claimed only 31 lives. In 2022, Sitrang killed even fewer – just 35. What changed? Bangladesh's scientists learned to speak the language of storms. Ellipses That Save Lives A team led by Professor Shihan Miah from the University of West London created a mathematical model that looks like a work of art – a system of ellipses and straight lines encompassing the entire Bay of Bengal. Imagine a map where instead of regular squares, ellipses are drawn, all concentrating on one point – coordinates 23°N, 90.25°E. It's like a net that covers coastal zones most densely, where the threat is greatest, and becomes sparser toward the open sea. Why ellipses? Bangladesh's coastline isn't a straight line. It winds and curves, surrounded by islands, with shallows alternating with deep waters. Regular square grids don't work here – they oversimplify complex reality. When Physics Meets Reality Miah's team model solves what are called shallow water equations – mathematical descriptions of how water moves in shallow waters. This sounds academic, but in reality, it means life and death. Storms create two dangers: wind and water surge. Wind can destroy a house, but water surge – the storm surge – drowns entire villages. When 260 km/h winds push water into the shallow waters of the Bay of Bengal, the water has nowhere to go – it rises and floods the lowlands. But how much exactly will it rise? When? Where will it be most dangerous? These questions require not intuition, but precise calculations. Amphan's Lesson May 20, 2020, became a practical test day. Cyclone Amphan, formed 300 kilometers east of Sri Lanka, became a monster within days. Miah's team model showed: Hiron Point water levels would rise to 2.8 meters, Khepupara to 2.7 meters, Cox's Bazar to 2.2 meters. In the Barishal region, where the storm would make landfall, water levels would reach 4.4 meters. When the storm passed and predictions could be compared with reality, the results surprised even the researchers themselves. Their calculations almost exactly matched what actually happened. The Bulbul Experiment November 2019's Cyclone Bulbul was less intense than Amphan but still dangerous. Miah's team predictions were again confirmed: Hiron Point – 2.4 meters, Chottogram – 2.8 meters, Cox's Bazar – 2.0 meters. But most importantly, this time they had enough observational data to compare their predictions with actual measurements. The match was nearly perfect. Technology Behind the Scenes How does this "crystal ball" work? The model recalculates water movement every 30 seconds across all 3,600 grid points. It accounts for: - Astronomical tide and ebb cycles - Wind direction and speed - Seafloor topography - Island and coastal formations - Even the outflows of the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna rivers The calculations happen on a computer, but the mathematics is based on physical laws that governed waters long before humans appeared. What Lies Behind the Numbers Ahmed lives on Sandwip Island. When he received the warning about approaching Amphan in 2020, he knew exactly what to do. Not because he was a meteorologist – he was a simple fisherman. But government warnings based on Miah's team model were so precise that Ahmed could plan his family's evacuation down to the minute. "Before, we used to guess," says Ahmed. "Today they tell us: tomorrow at 3:30 PM, the water in your village will rise to two meters. And that's exactly what happens." Technical Subtleties From a mathematical perspective, Miah's team achievement is the art of transformations. They took the complex, irregular shape of Bangladesh's coastline and "straightened" it into a regular rectangular grid where standard computational methods could be applied. It's like taking a wrappable world map and spreading it out on a table – geographical shapes are distorted, but mathematical properties remain precise. Climate Change Context Bangladesh's scientists are working with a moving target. Climate change is changing the rules of the game: sea levels are rising, storms are intensifying, and weather patterns are becoming unpredictable. Miah's team model must adapt to these changes. Formulas that accurately predicted 2020 storms may require corrections by 2030. Technological Democratization Most importantly, this model isn't a secret nuclear weapon formula. Miah's team uses the open-source Python programming language and publishes their methods in academic journals. This means any country facing similar challenges – from the Philippines to Florida – can adapt this mathematics to their needs. The Story of Unsung Heroes The real lesson of this story isn't about mathematics or computers. It's about how a few scientists, armed only with computers and physics textbooks, can stand against natural forces that were once completely unpredictable. In the aftermath of Amphan, the Sundarbans region – a UNESCO World Heritage Site famous for its mangrove forests and endangered Bengal tigers – bore the brunt of the storm's fury. The area saw massive flooding, with aerial photographs showing houses and buildings completely submerged after embankments broke under the storm surge. Recovery efforts revealed the scale of destruction: in Satkhira, villagers worked to repair houses reduced to rubble. In West Bengal's Midnapore district, families salvaged what they could from homes destroyed by 170 km/h winds. Uprooted trees blocked roads throughout Kolkata, and buses were crushed under fallen giants. The United Nations estimated that 10 million people were affected by Amphan, with approximately 500,000 losing their homes. Yet the relatively low death toll of 84 people – compared to the 500,000 killed by the 1970 cyclone or the 3,500 who died in 2007's Cyclone Sidr – demonstrated how advanced warning systems had revolutionized disaster preparedness. This transformation was made possible by scientists like Professor Shihan Miah from the University of West London, whose mathematical models could predict exactly where storm surges would be highest and when evacuation was necessary. Future Challenges But Miah's team isn't resting on their laurels. Their next goal is to create a real-time warning system that could send SMS messages directly to every Bangladeshi's phone with precise water level forecasts for their village. Imagine: Ahmed sits in his boat and receives a message: "Ahmed, Sandwip Island, in 3 hours water level 1.8 meters. Evacuate now." This isn't science fiction. It's mathematics that already works. Conclusion: A Formula That Changes the World Bangladesh's coastal residents don't know Shihan Miah's name. They don't know what shallow water equations or elliptical coordinates are. But every time they survive a tropical storm, they benefit from mathematical power that can predict the future. This story reminds us that science isn't always about building spaceships or creating new medicines. Sometimes it simply saves lives, one formula at a time. When the next cyclone reaches Bangladesh's shores – and it certainly will, because that's a law of nature – somewhere a computer is already calculating precise water level forecasts. And somewhere someone will survive because of a mathematical formula created by people who believe science can be used for good.
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